NFL Week 4 is here, and I've got a set of player prop picks lined up for this Sunday. Let’s dive into the best plays, including picks for Sam Darnold, Michael Pittman Jr., Garrett Wilson, and others. Be sure to check back for updates as more props are added.
Sean Koerner's Week 4 Player Props
Sam Darnold (Vikings) – Over 30.5 Pass Attempts (-128, FanDuel)
Matchup : Vikings vs. Packers (1 p.m. ET, CBS)
Pick : Over 30.5 pass attempts
Darnold hasn’t hit this number yet this season (24, 26, and 28 attempts in previous games), but the Vikings are among the most pass-heavy teams in neutral game situations. Given their +7% pass rate over expected and the likelihood of a neutral or trailing game script, Darnold’s attempts should rise. He's also dealing with a knee injury, which could limit his mobility and lead to more throwaways, boosting his pass attempts. I project him closer to 33 pass attempts this week.
Michael Pittman Jr. (Colts) – Under 4.5 Receptions (-125, DraftKings)
Matchup : Colts vs. Steelers (1 p.m. ET, CBS)
Pick : Under 4.5 receptions
Pittman thrives on volume, but Anthony Richardson’s style isn't ideal for him. Richardson typically attempts fewer passes with lower completion rates, especially under pressure—an area where the Steelers excel (5th in pressure rate). Pittman will likely face tough coverage from Joey Porter Jr., making it harder for him to get targets. I project him closer to 4 receptions, with a fair price closer to -160.
Trey Palmer (Buccaneers) – Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)
Matchup : Buccaneers vs. Eagles (1 p.m. ET, FOX)
Pick : Over 14.5 receiving yards
With Jalen McMillan likely out due to injury, Palmer should step into the third WR role. He’s projected to see around 60% of Baker Mayfield's dropbacks, giving him enough opportunities to clear this yardage mark. I project his median closer to 22.5 yards, with about a 60% chance to exceed 14.5.
Garrett Wilson (Jets) – Under 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110, DraftKings)
Matchup : Broncos vs. Jets (1 p.m. ET, CBS)
Pick : Under 57.5 receiving yards
Wilson faces an uphill battle against Broncos CB Patrick Surtain, who has been dominant this season. Surtain has held star receivers like DK Metcalf, George Pickens, and Mike Evans to under 30 yards each. With Surtain likely shadowing Wilson and the Jets offense relying more on Breece Hall and Allen Lazard, I’m projecting Wilson’s median closer to 51.5 yards, with a 60% chance he stays under 57.5.
Greg Dortch (Cardinals) – Over 3.5 Receptions (-125, ESPN Bet)
Matchup : Commanders vs. Cardinals (4:05 p.m. ET, FOX)
Pick : Over 3.5 receptions
With TE Trey McBride ruled out, Dortch’s role in the Cardinals' offense should increase. He ran a route on 94% of dropbacks after McBride’s injury last week, and he should absorb additional targets. I prefer betting on his receptions rather than his yardage prop, as he’s likely to be targeted underneath. I project him closer to 4.3 receptions, with a fair price around -170.
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