A developing tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to become a low-end Category 1 hurricane by Wednesday, with potential landfall along the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts.
Following weeks of relative calm, the National Hurricane Center has increased the likelihood of tropical storm formation to 90% within the next 48 hours, according to a 10 p.m. CT update on Sunday.
A tropical storm watch has been issued for southern Texas, from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande River, indicating that tropical storm conditions could affect the area by Tuesday evening. Additionally, a tropical storm watch is in effect for the Mexican coast south to Barra del Tordo.
As of Sunday night, the system was located approximately 320 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande and about 550 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana. With sustained winds of 50 mph, the system was moving very slowly at 5 mph in a north-northwest direction.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring this system, which could become the sixth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, potentially named Francine. The hurricane center anticipates that the system will develop into a tropical storm by Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible along the northeastern coast of Mexico and the southern tip of Texas.
If no other systems in the tropical Atlantic develop first, this storm would be named Francine. Hurricane, storm surge, and tropical storm watches are expected to be issued for the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts on Monday.
The system, currently referred to as Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, is one of three systems being monitored by the hurricane center. Another system in the central tropical Atlantic has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm within 48 hours, while a third system farther east has a 50% chance of development over the next week.
Forecasts predict that the storm could become a low-end Category 1 hurricane with winds reaching 80 mph by Wednesday. The storm is expected to bring 4 to 8 inches of rainfall to the coast, with localized amounts up to 12 inches in northeastern Mexico and along the Texas and Louisiana coasts through Thursday, posing a flash flood risk.
According to Donald Jones, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Lake Charles, Louisiana, the system is forecast to accelerate northeastward by late Tuesday as it interacts with a cold front along the Gulf Coast. Landfall is projected to occur along the upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coast on Wednesday evening.
Jones advised residents in southwestern Louisiana to stay informed about the weather, noting that there remains a possibility the storm could strengthen to a Category 2 hurricane. Water temperatures in the Gulf are warmer than usual, which could aid in hurricane development, though increased wind shear and drier air could limit significant strengthening.
"Expect 8 to 12 inches of rainfall south of Interstate 10 in southwestern Louisiana," Jones said. "At this point, flooding is the primary concern. The storm track has shifted slightly eastward and may shift further."
Stay updated with the latest developments as the storm progresses.
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