Tropical Storm Helene Forms; Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches Issued for Florida

 

Key Points:

 Hurricane, storm surge, and tropical storm watches have been issued for parts of Florida.

Helene is expected to strengthen into a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday.

 Landfall is likely along Florida's Gulf Coast by Thursday night as a powerful hurricane.

 Life-threatening storm surge, damaging winds, and flooding rain are expected.

Strong winds and heavy rainfall may affect inland areas of the Southeast into Friday.

Tropical Storm Helene has formed and is predicted to intensify into a major hurricane before striking Florida’s Gulf Coast on Thursday night.

Current Status:

Helene, the eighth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, developed Tuesday morning, about 200 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission confirmed the storm’s better-defined low-level circulation and strong winds.

While most thunderstorms remain east of Helene’s center, they are starting to wrap closer, signaling increased organization.

Watches and Warnings:

Tropical storm alerts have been issued for parts of the Yucatán Peninsula, western Cuba, Grand Cayman, and Florida. This means tropical storm conditions are expected, with possible hurricane conditions in the next 36 to 48 hours. Storm surge alerts are also in effect along much of Florida’s Gulf Coast.

Residents along Florida’s Gulf Coast should closely monitor updates, finalize hurricane preparations, and follow local emergency management guidelines.

Forecast Timeline:

- **Tuesday:** Helene moves closer to Cancún, Cozumel, and western Cuba, bringing heavy rain, gusty winds, and potential storm surge flooding. Up to 12 inches of rain may fall in parts of western Cuba, raising flash flood concerns.

Wednesday:  Helene could become a hurricane near Cancún and Cozumel, with strong winds, heavy rain, and surge flooding. The storm will then enter the southern Gulf of Mexico, intensifying and expanding in size. Some outer rainbands may reach Florida’s Gulf Coast.

Thursday:  Helene is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane along Florida’s Gulf Coast, likely near the Big Bend region. Impacts—storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rain—will extend far from the center.

Friday:  Helene will move north through the Southeast, bringing strong winds, flooding rain, and possible tornadoes.

Strength and Impacts:

Helene is expected to become a major hurricane before landfall, fueled by warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, which are at record levels. Favorable upper-level winds could also help Helene rapidly intensify to at least Category 3 status before hitting Florida.

Storm Surge:

Helene’s large size and strong winds will drive significant storm surge along Florida’s Gulf Coast. Areas like Big Bend, Apalachee Bay, and the Nature Coast could see surge levels over 10 feet, potentially surpassing Hurricane Idalia’s surge in 2023.

Winds:

Helene’s strong winds will cover a wide area, with hurricane-force gusts expected along Florida’s Gulf Coast and possibly reaching inland into Georgia. Downed trees, power outages, and structural damage are likely in affected regions.

Rainfall:

Helene will produce heavy rain along and to the east of its path, with widespread totals of over 4 inches expected from Florida into the Southeast. Some areas, particularly in the Florida Panhandle and southern Appalachians, could see up to 12 inches of rain, leading to flash flooding and increasing the risk of falling trees.

Residents in these regions should stay informed, finalize preparations, and heed any evacuation orders as the storm approaches.