U.S. intelligence officials have warned that Russia's covert efforts to influence the 2024 presidential election are more advanced than in previous years and represent the most significant foreign threat this election season. According to a senior official from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Russia's tactics now involve "authentic U.S. voices" to disseminate Russian government propaganda and propagate socially divisive narratives through major social media platforms and fraudulent websites posing as legitimate American media outlets.
The official highlighted that Moscow is focusing its efforts on key U.S. swing states, employing artificial intelligence to quickly generate convincing fake content intended to benefit former President Donald Trump. This strategy aligns with Russia's broader foreign policy goals of weakening the U.S. and undermining Washington's support for Ukraine. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, noted that Russia's activities are more sophisticated and extensive compared to past election cycles.
While China is not currently attempting to influence the presidential race, it is targeting state and regional elections, mirroring its approach during the 2022 midterms, officials said. However, there have been no indications of foreign interference such as hacking voting machines in the 2024 election.
For the first time, ODNI officials have confirmed that Iran was responsible for both the recent hack of the Trump campaign and the subsequent leak of internal campaign documents. These documents were sent to media outlets, including The Washington Post, by an individual using an AOL email account under the name “Robert.”
In response to these threats, the U.S. government has announced a series of actions to counter Russian influence campaigns. This includes indicting two Russian employees of the state-run news site RT for allegedly paying an American media company to distribute English-language videos across platforms like YouTube, TikTok, Instagram, and X. Additionally, prosecutors have seized 32 Russian-controlled internet domains used in a state-led influence effort known as “Doppelganger,” which aimed to erode international support for Ukraine. The Treasury and State departments have also imposed sanctions on Russian individuals and entities involved in spreading propaganda.
ODNI officials highlighted that RT has been instrumental in spreading pro-Moscow narratives while disguising them as authentic American voices. “Russia is at the top of the list” for foreign governments seeking to influence the election, the official said, attributing this to their robust and experienced approach, as well as the significant scope and scale of their operations.
Russia's current tactics involve using AI to produce synthetic content rapidly and employing influence-for-hire firms skilled in marketing and public relations to obscure the origins of their campaigns. “Americans are more likely to trust the views of fellow Americans over content that clearly signals foreign origins,” the official explained. Consequently, Russia relies on both witting and unwitting Americans to propagate and lend credibility to its narratives.
These methods represent an evolution from the interference strategies used in 2016, which initially took the U.S. intelligence community by surprise. Brandon Van Grack, a former federal prosecutor who investigated Moscow's 2016 efforts, noted that Russia's current approach involves laundering influence through U.S. media figures in a manner far more sophisticated than before.
While the identities of the influencers mentioned in recent indictments have not been disclosed, conservative YouTuber Matt Christiansen claimed on a live stream that he was among those mentioned. He asserted, however, that he had not been influenced by Russian entities and that his views were rooted in traditional American values.
In 2016, RT operated openly in the U.S. but was required to register as a foreign agent the following year. By 2022, RT’s influence in the West was effectively diminished following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Van Grack observed that the current influence operations are more refined compared to those in 2016. “We did not see influencers spreading misinformation funded by the Russian government in the same manner back then,” he said.
ODNI officials also pointed out that while Russia's methods have evolved, so too has the U.S. intelligence community’s understanding and countermeasures. Gavin Wilde, a former U.S. intelligence analyst, noted that the current level of detail and orchestration by the Kremlin, including the involvement of Deputy Chief of Staff Sergei Kiriyenko in the “Doppelganger” effort, represents a more formalized and high-level direction than previously observed.
The Washington Post reported in April 2023 that Kiriyenko was overseeing a network of political strategists conducting propaganda campaigns to advance Russian interests and undermine support for Ukraine across Europe. Kiriyenko’s efforts have also targeted U.S. political discourse, seeking to influence Congressional decisions and stir domestic tensions.
Contributions to this report were made by Catherine Belton in London and Will Sommer in Washington.
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