Tropical Storm Rafael is gaining strength in the Caribbean Sea and is forecasted to reach hurricane status by Wednesday, bringing potentially severe impacts to the region.
As of Tuesday morning, Rafael was situated about 105 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and 265 miles southeast of Grand Cayman, according to updates from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The storm is projected to bring damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and a significant storm surge, impacting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands starting Tuesday, and hitting western Cuba by Wednesday. The Florida Keys may also experience effects beginning Wednesday evening.
Hurricane warnings are in effect for the Isle of Youth, several Cuban provinces, and the Cayman Islands, following Monday night’s advisory from the NHC. By Tuesday afternoon, hurricane-force winds could reach parts of the Cayman Islands, with western Cuba facing similar conditions on Wednesday.
The Florida Keys were placed under a tropical storm watch on Monday, joining existing alerts for Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Forecasts indicate that gusty winds and up to 3 inches of rain could impact these areas.
Rafael, which formed on Monday afternoon, is expected to undergo “steady to rapid intensification” as it nears landfall in Cuba, potentially reaching at least a high-end Category 1 hurricane.
Heavy rain has already begun in Jamaica, where forecasts predict 3 to 6 inches across the Caribbean, with localized amounts up to 9 inches in western Cuba and Jamaica. The intense rainfall poses risks of flash flooding and landslides, particularly in mountainous regions of Jamaica.
Cuban authorities have upgraded warnings for the provinces of Cienfuegos, Villa Clara, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila from tropical storm watches to tropical storm warnings. Jamaica remains under a tropical storm warning.
The NHC reports that Rafael’s path remains uncertain, with forecast models showing varied outcomes. One model predicts landfall in western Cuba before the storm shifts northwest toward the U.S., while another suggests a turn leftward into the Gulf, potentially weakening the system or leading to landfall in northeastern Mexico.
While this season has already seen five hurricanes hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, Rafael’s impact is expected to be milder compared to previous storms like hurricanes Helene and Milton, due in part to Cuba’s geography and upper-level wind patterns that may limit its intensity.
Although tropical activity is less common in November, storms can still occur, with few making U.S. landfall during this month. Hurricane expert Michael Lowry pointed out that 98% of named storms in the U.S. typically strike before November.
The storm is also predicted to create rough seas and dangerous storm surges, potentially bringing water levels up to 3 feet above normal in the Cayman Islands and as high as 9 feet in western Cuba.
Precautions are being taken across the affected areas; in Jamaica, schools have been closed for in-person classes as authorities prepare for the incoming severe weather.
.jpeg)
0 Comments