Romania, long seen as a dependable EU member and NATO ally, has delivered a political shock with the rise of far-right ultranationalist Călin Georgescu in the first round of its presidential election. Georgescu’s unexpected victory is raising fears of a shift in Romania’s geopolitical stance, which could destabilize both the European Union and NATO.
A Surprising Outcome
The first round of voting on Sunday marked a stark departure from Romania’s traditionally pro-Western trajectory. Reformist candidate Elena Lasconi, who will face Georgescu in a runoff on December 8, has urged voters to resist Russian influence. Speaking to supporters in Bucharest, she warned against allowing public frustration with the current political establishment to be manipulated by external forces, particularly Moscow.
Romania’s position has stood in contrast to EU members like Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria, which have struggled with rule-of-law concerns and pro-Russian tendencies. A pivot toward Moscow by Romania—a strategically significant country with a population of 19 million—would amplify divisions within the EU and complicate NATO’s cohesion, especially as it continues to counter Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.
The Rise of Călin Georgescu
Georgescu’s candidacy exemplifies the 2024 model of far-right populism. An independent with no political party backing, Georgescu has gained traction through plain-spoken rhetoric, rejection of Western norms, and social media dominance, particularly on TikTok, where he boasts 3.8 million likes. His anti-EU, anti-NATO stance and apparent admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin position him as a potential ally for Moscow within the EU.
Siegfried Mureșan, a conservative Romanian lawmaker in the European Parliament, described Georgescu’s ascent as part of Russia’s broader strategy to destabilize European democracies. Analysts like Milan Nič from the German Council on Foreign Relations note that Romania’s strategic location bordering Ukraine and the Black Sea makes it a key target for Russian influence. “The plan is to cut Romania off from the Black Sea,” Nič explained, highlighting parallels to Russia’s actions in Moldova and Georgia.
Concerns Over Interference
Election observers and analysts have pointed to potential foreign interference in Romania’s election, especially given Georgescu’s sudden rise to prominence. Winning 22.9% of the vote in the first round, he outpaced Lasconi, who secured 19.2%. Georgescu’s campaign has drawn suspicion for its heavy reliance on TikTok, with critics suggesting that substantial funding—possibly from Russian sources—may have played a role.
Lasconi has framed the December 8 runoff as a critical moment for Romania to affirm its pro-European identity. Comparisons have been made to neighboring Moldova, where pro-EU President Maia Sandu recently prevailed against Russian-backed opposition. Mureșan emphasized the urgency of the situation: “Romanians must reject such influence and choose a pro-European path.”
Implications for the EU and NATO
Georgescu’s potential victory would bolster a growing bloc of EU leaders critical of the West. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico have both championed pro-Russian views, and other countries, like Czechia, could follow suit if populist leaders gain ground in upcoming elections.
Georgescu’s criticism of Romania hosting a U.S. anti-missile shield and his praise for Putin as a “man who loved his country” raise concerns about Romania’s commitment to NATO’s collective defense. Romania has played a crucial role in supporting Ukraine, particularly through the Mihail Kogălniceanu air base on the Black Sea. A shift in leadership could jeopardize this support and weaken NATO’s eastern flank.
Domestic Frustration Fuels Populism
Domestically, Georgescu’s success reflects widespread disillusionment with Romania’s political establishment. Former President Traian Băsescu attributed Georgescu’s rise to voter anger over corruption and political interference in the justice system. The ruling coalition of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the National Liberal Party (PNL) has faced backlash for perceived governance failures over the past two years, further fueling anti-establishment sentiment.
Băsescu, however, expressed cautious optimism, suggesting that Romania’s electorate remains fundamentally pro-EU and pro-NATO. He predicted that voters would rally behind Lasconi in the runoff, though he acknowledged the growing appeal of populist rhetoric.
Building Alliances and Countering Extremism
The European People’s Party (EPP), the EU’s largest political group, has called for renewed efforts to combat extremism. Thanasis Bakolas, EPP secretary-general, warned that Georgescu’s rise highlights a broader trend of rising far-right populism across Europe. “This struggle against populism, against extremism—it’s never-ending,” he said, emphasizing the need for centrist coalitions to counteract political polarization.
Yet concerns remain over the potential for Georgescu to consolidate support from other right-wing factions. After his first-round victory, Georgescu received an endorsement from George Simion, leader of the hard-right AUR party. If Georgescu captures Simion’s voter base, he could close the gap with Lasconi and center-left Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, who also garnered significant support in the first round.
The Path Ahead
The December 8 runoff will serve as a critical test of Romania’s political direction. A victory for Lasconi would reaffirm the country’s commitment to the EU and NATO, while a Georgescu presidency could signal a dramatic realignment toward Moscow. The stakes extend beyond Romania’s borders, with implications for the EU’s unity and NATO’s strategic posture.
As Brussels braces for the runoff, leaders across Europe are watching closely, recognizing that Romania’s choice will resonate throughout the region. Whether Romania joins the growing list of pro-Russian governments or reaffirms its pro-Western stance will shape the geopolitical landscape for years to come.
.jpeg)
0 Comments