Tunisia is set to hold a presidential election on Sunday, but critics and experts warn that the vote may be the final chapter in the country’s democratic experiment, which began with the Arab Spring over a decade ago. President Kais Saied, the incumbent authoritarian leader, has taken significant steps to consolidate power, leaving little room for opposition or dissent. His opponents are either behind bars, disqualified, or otherwise prevented from running, raising concerns about the legitimacy of the election and the future of democracy in Tunisia.
Saied, who came to power in 2019 in a landslide victory, initially positioned himself as an outsider intent on reforming a corrupt political system. However, since taking office, he has systematically dismantled Tunisia’s democratic institutions, expanding his powers through controversial measures, including a new constitution that eliminated checks and balances. These actions have drawn widespread criticism, with many seeing the upcoming election as an exercise in futility rather than a genuine democratic process.
A Democracy in Decline
Tunisia was once hailed as a beacon of hope in the Arab world for its successful transition to democracy following the 2011 revolution. The country’s mass protests against longtime dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali sparked similar movements across the Middle East, known collectively as the Arab Spring. While other nations descended into chaos or experienced military coups, Tunisia emerged as the success story of the movement. It implemented democratic reforms, held free and fair elections, and established a new constitution.
However, this democratic progress has been steadily eroded under Saied’s leadership. In 2021, Saied took drastic steps by dismissing the prime minister, suspending parliament, and granting himself the authority to rule by decree. These moves were seen as an alarming power grab, signaling a shift toward autocracy. The following year, he solidified his control by pushing through a new constitution, which weakened the legislative branch and eroded judicial independence. Despite the significance of this referendum, voter turnout was notably low, reflecting widespread apathy and disillusionment among the Tunisian population.
Saied is now seeking a second five-year term with most of the country's political power firmly in his hands. According to Sarah Yerkes, a senior fellow at Carnegie’s Middle East Program, the election may appear on the surface to be democratic, but a closer look reveals that it is anything but. “Once you peel the layers off, it becomes very clear that this election is nowhere close to free or fair,” Yerkes said.
Limited Choice, No Competition
Seventeen candidates initially submitted paperwork to run for the presidency, but most have been either disqualified or imprisoned, leaving Saied with minimal competition. The elections commission, which previously operated as an independent body, has been stripped of its autonomy by Saied's government, raising doubts about the fairness of the entire process. Many potential candidates were unable to obtain the necessary documents from Tunisia’s Interior Ministry to participate in the election, according to reports from *Reuters*.
One of the few candidates cleared to run, opposition figure Ayyachi Zammel, was detained shortly after his candidacy was approved. Zammel, who belongs to the opposition Azimoun party, faces charges of falsifying documents, allegations he denies. His lawyer, Fawzi Jaballah, has described the accusations as politically motivated, intended to silence dissenting voices. Zammel, relatively unknown before his arrest, has gained prominence due to his detention, with some Tunisians viewing him as the last remaining hope for opposition politics.
Despite the obstacles, a few candidates remain in the race. One notable figure is Zouhair Maghzaoui, a veteran politician and former ally of Saied who initially supported the president’s power grab but has since become a vocal critic. Maghzaoui’s candidacy, however, is seen by many as more symbolic than competitive, given the overwhelming control Saied has over the political landscape.
A Nation in Crisis
While Saied continues to consolidate power, Tunisia is grappling with a severe economic crisis. The country has faced years of slow economic growth, rising inflation, and high unemployment, leaving many Tunisians disillusioned with the political system. Saied came into office with promises to clean up corruption and improve the lives of ordinary citizens, but those promises have largely gone unfulfilled.
The president’s tenure has also been marked by his controversial stance on migration, particularly his xenophobic rhetoric and policies targeting sub-Saharan African migrants. Saied has faced international criticism for these policies, which have only added to the perception of his increasingly authoritarian rule.
Despite the country’s economic woes and Saied’s failure to deliver on his promises, some Tunisians still support him. Mounir Laadouli, a 43-year-old farmer from a southern suburb of Tunis, expressed his intention to vote for Saied, citing his belief that the president could still bring about change. Laadouli noted that civil servants have been working more diligently under Saied’s leadership, as they fear being fired by the president.
Mahmoud Ben Mabrouk, Saied’s chief campaign manager, defended the president’s record, claiming that Saied has made progress by breaking ties with the old political systems. Ben Mabrouk also accused imprisoned candidates of falsifying signatures to secure their place on the ballot, further justifying their disqualification.
Tunisia’s Democratic Backslide
This election marks a stark contrast to Tunisia’s previous two presidential elections, which were widely seen as free and fair by international observers. The current political climate, however, is vastly different. According to Human Rights Watch, more than 170 people are currently detained in Tunisia for “political reasons or for exercising their fundamental rights.” Many of these individuals are members of the Islamist Ennahda party, once the largest political party in parliament and a major player in Tunisia’s post-revolution democracy. Rachid Ghannouchi, the leader of Ennahda, was sentenced to three years in prison on charges of receiving foreign funding.
In addition to imprisoning political opponents, Saied’s government recently passed changes to the country’s electoral laws, stripping administrative courts of their power to oversee the election commission. This move further consolidates Saied’s control over the electoral process and diminishes any remaining safeguards against potential abuses of power.
Yerkes, the expert from Carnegie, emphasized that Saied’s background as a constitutional law professor allows him to operate within the bounds of “legal” means, albeit laws that he has rewritten to suit his interests. “It’s fair to say, ‘Yeah, he disqualified someone based on a Tunisian law — but it’s a law that he wrote,’” Yerkes explained. These laws have been carefully crafted to tilt the political scales in Saied’s favor, allowing him to justify repressive actions while maintaining a façade of legality.
The End of Tunisia’s Democratic Transition?
As Tunisians prepare to vote on Sunday, many fear that the election represents the end of the country’s brief experiment with democracy. What began as a movement for political freedom and reform has, over time, devolved into an authoritarian regime. For critics like Maher Madhioub, a member of the Ennahda party, the situation is particularly disheartening given Saied’s legal expertise. “I’m among the students of Kais Saied; he taught us the law,” Madhioub said. “It is really a big problem — you are a law professor, how can you do this?”
With most opposition figures sidelined and Saied controlling the political narrative, the presidential election seems poised to reinforce his grip on power. For Tunisia, once the poster child of the Arab Spring, Sunday’s vote may mark the final step away from democracy.
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