As the battle for Senate control enters its final stages, Republicans are pushing hard to end their four-year stretch in the minority. To reclaim the majority, the GOP only needs to win one of two competitive races in red states—Montana and Ohio. According to Decision Desk HQ and The Hill, Republicans currently have a 72% chance of taking control of the Senate.
The bigger question is whether Republicans can expand their success beyond those two states and secure additional wins across the battlegrounds.
While West Virginia is already expected to flip red, here are the five most likely Senate seats to change hands:
1. Montana
Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) faces the toughest reelection challenge of his career. Republican Tim Sheehy, a top recruit for the GOP, has maintained a steady polling lead over the three-term incumbent. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll showed Sheehy leading by 8 points, a margin that has been consistent since August.
Despite the unfavorable numbers, Democrats are continuing to invest heavily in the race. Both parties are expected to spend nearly $30 million in the coming weeks. Republicans, however, are confident, and will keep pouring resources into the state regardless of Democratic spending. Tester faces an uphill battle to win over enough supporters of former President Trump, who holds a 17-point lead in Montana according to recent polls.
“It’s going to be a political miracle if he wins,” said John LaBombard, a Democratic strategist.
2. Ohio
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is in a tightening race against Republican Bernie Moreno. Brown held a consistent lead throughout the summer, but Moreno’s campaign and GOP groups tied to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have ramped up spending, with $80 million allocated for ads between Labor Day and Election Day.
Although Brown raised over $30 million in the third quarter, recent polls show a dead heat. According to an internal poll by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the race is tied at 46%. A Washington Post poll showed Brown with a slim 1-point lead, while Trump leads Vice President Harris by 7 points in the state.
Moreno’s closing argument is clear: “Put your jersey on. Trump needs me in the United States Senate.”
3. Wisconsin
Wisconsin has become a surprise battleground, with Republican Eric Hovde making a late push to unseat Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.). Baldwin’s once-comfortable lead has narrowed, with the Cook Political Report shifting the race to a “toss-up.”
Hovde, a wealthy businessman, is pouring significant funds into his campaign as Republicans attempt to outspend Baldwin in the final month. GOP attacks on Baldwin’s handling of financial disclosures have gained traction, and political observers describe the race as a “coin flip.”
The question remains whether Baldwin can hold on to Republican-leaning voters she has previously attracted and counter the late GOP surge in spending.
4. Michigan
Republicans see an opening in Michigan with former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) running for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.). Michigan is a key swing state, and Rogers is viewed as a strong candidate against Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.).
However, Michigan has been a tough state for Republicans in Senate races, with no GOP victories there since 1994. While Rogers and outside Republican groups have outspent Democrats recently, Slotkin still holds a 5-point lead in the latest poll.
With Michigan evenly split between Trump and Harris in presidential polling, Republicans remain hopeful but recognize the challenge ahead.
5. Pennsylvania
The Senate race in Pennsylvania has emerged as one of the tightest in the country. Republican David McCormick is working to unseat Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.), who is seeking his fourth term.
In recent weeks, McCormick has gained ground as GOP groups ramp up spending. Pennsylvania has seen the second-highest ad spending of any Senate race, trailing only Ohio. Although McCormick has narrowed the gap, Casey still holds a 2-point lead, according to a recent poll.
While Republicans are optimistic, they acknowledge that defeating Casey is a daunting task.
.jpeg)
0 Comments